Tarrant County, Texas
Active alerts and forecasts are evaluated at the representative point shown below. Historical and climate evidence uses county-level data where available.
Representative point: Tarrant County Census representative point, Texas
- LAT
- 32.77212
- LON
- -97.29122
- ZONE
- America/Chicago
- COUNTY_FIPS
- 48439
0–100 DECISION INDEX, NOT EVENT PROBABILITY
EVIDENCE QUALITY 67.5/100
No audience or operational context supplied.
What this assessment says.
Elevated available evidence for extreme heat and heat index.
2 intersecting official alerts. Forecast guidance available for supported hazards.High historical or climate indices for tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, hail, lightning.
Historical and climate indices describe planning exposure, not current conditions.Evidence layers are available across the 19 monitored hazards.
All registered sources responded. Not scored is different from zero.Active directives
Heat Advisory issued August 26 at 11:20AM CDT until August 27 at 8:00PM CDT by NWS Fort Worth TX
Grayson; Fannin; Lamar; Wise; Denton; Collin; Hunt; Delta; Hopkins; Parker; Tarrant; Dallas; Rockwall; Kaufman; Van Zandt; Rains; Hood; Somervell; Johnson; Ellis; Henderson; Bosque; Hill; Navarro; Freestone; Anderson; Coryell; Bell; McLennan; Falls; Limestone; Leon; Milam; Robertson
OFFICIAL INSTRUCTION, VERBATIMTake extra precautions when outside by staying hydrated, wearing lightweight and loose fitting clothing, and limiting strenuous activities to the early morning or evening. Check up on relatives and neighbors. Never leave young children or pets in an enclosed vehicle, even for a short time, as temperatures can quickly rise to life-threatening levels. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. To reduce risk when outdoors, the occupational safety and health administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 911 ASAP if you or someone you know is exhibiting signs of heat stroke.SOURCE: NWS Fort Worth TX
Air Quality Alert issued August 25 at 2:35PM CDT by NWS Fort Worth TX
Wise; Denton; Collin; Hunt; Parker; Tarrant; Dallas; Rockwall; Kaufman; Hood; Johnson; Ellis; Henderson
SOURCE: NWS Fort Worth TXRisk by hazard
Weights: active 40% · forecast 30% · history 20% · climate 10%
| Hazard | Assessment | Current and 14-day | Long-term evidence | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme heat and heat indexCURRENT / NEAR-TERM | 40/100Moderate | ACTIVE22.5/10014-DAY75/100 | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATE79.3/100 | 3 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 67.5/100 |
| LightningHIGH LONG-TERM | 21.4/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100 | HISTORY99.5/100CLIMATENot scored | 3 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 77.5/100 |
| Severe thunderstormsHIGH LONG-TERM | 21.2/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100 | HISTORY98.4/100CLIMATENot scored | 3 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 77.5/100 |
| Flash floodingHIGH LONG-TERM | 25.9/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100 | HISTORY98/100CLIMATE48.3/100 | 4 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 84.5/100 |
| HailHIGH LONG-TERM | 20/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORY99.9/100CLIMATENot scored | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 55.0/100 |
| TornadoesHIGH LONG-TERM | 19.5/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORY97.5/100CLIMATENot scored | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 55.0/100 |
| River floodingHIGH LONG-TERM | 21.9/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORY85.2/100CLIMATE48.3/100 | 3 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 62.0/100 |
| Wildfire smoke and degraded air quality | 9/100Low | ACTIVE22.5/10014-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100 |
| Heavy rain and atmospheric rivers | 15.9/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY16.8/100 | HISTORY30.2/100CLIMATE48.3/100 | 4 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 84.5/100 |
| Urban flooding | 6.3/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100 | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATE48.3/100 | 3 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 67.5/100 |
| Extreme cold and wind chill | 3.6/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100 | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATE20.7/100 | 3 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 67.5/100 |
| Blizzards | 1.5/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100 | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 60.5/100 |
| Ice storms and freezing rain | 1.5/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100 | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 60.5/100 |
| Winter storms and heavy snow | 1.5/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100 | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 60.5/100 |
| Wildfires | 6.6/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATE65.5/100 | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 45.0/100 |
| Drought | 5.2/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATE51.7/100 | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 45.0/100 |
| Coastal flooding | 4.8/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATE48.3/100 | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 45.0/100 |
| Hurricanes and tropical storms | 0/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100 |
| Storm surge | 0/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100 |
Component evidence
Extreme heat and heat index
40/100 · Moderate3 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 67.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 22.5/1001 intersecting official alert.
- FORECAST
- 75/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- 79.3/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Technical missing-data bound
59.4/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Lightning
21.4/100 · Low3 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 77.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 5/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- 99.5/10017 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 99.45. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
31.4/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Severe thunderstorms
21.2/100 · Low3 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 77.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 5/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- 98.4/100249 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 98.39. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
31.2/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Flash flooding
25.9/100 · Low4 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 84.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 5/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- 98/10077 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 98.01. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- 48.3/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Hail
20/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 55.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- 99.9/100465 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 99.92. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Tornadoes
19.5/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 55.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- 97.5/10020 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 97.45. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
River flooding
21.9/100 · Low3 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 62.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- 85.2/10015 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 85.22. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- 48.3/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Wildfire smoke and degraded air quality
9/100 · Low1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 22.5/1001 intersecting official alert.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Heavy rain and atmospheric rivers
15.9/100 · Low4 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 84.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 16.8/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- 30.2/1000 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 30.15. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- 48.3/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Urban flooding
6.3/100 · Low3 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 67.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 5/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- 48.3/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Technical missing-data bound
26.3/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Extreme cold and wind chill
3.6/100 · Low3 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 67.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 5/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- 20.7/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Technical missing-data bound
23.6/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Blizzards
1.5/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 60.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 5/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
31.5/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Ice storms and freezing rain
1.5/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 60.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 5/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
31.5/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Winter storms and heavy snow
1.5/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 60.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 5/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
31.5/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Wildfires
6.6/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 45.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- 65.5/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Drought
5.2/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 45.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- 51.7/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Coastal flooding
4.8/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 45.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- 48.3/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Hurricanes and tropical storms
0/100 · Low1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Storm surge
0/100 · Low1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Recommendations.
- 01Monitor linked issuing agencies and compare source issue, validity, and expiration times before acting.
- 02Use the highest active or forecast hazard as the planning driver; do not average away a severe local threat.
- 03Prioritize preparedness for extreme heat and heat index based on the currently confirmed score floor.
These recommendations never create, paraphrase, or override evacuation or shelter orders.
Sources
- AVAILABLE
Active alerts
NOAA / National Weather Service · retrieved 2026-08-26T19:48:49.303Z
CAP-compatible active alerts intersecting the evaluated point.
https://api.weather.gov/alerts/active?point=32.772119,-97.291224 - AVAILABLE
14-day forecast
Open-Meteo using NOAA and other national weather models · retrieved 2026-08-26T15:17:50.988Z
Daily cached model forecast retrieved 2026-08-26T15:17:50.988Z. Days 8–14 are model guidance, not deterministic NWS hazard forecasts.
https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=32.772119&longitude=-97.291224&daily=temperature_2m_max,temperature_2m_min,apparent_temperature_max,apparent_temperature_min,precipitation_sum,precipitation_probability_max,snowfall_sum,wind_gusts_10m_max,weather_code&temperature_unit=fahrenheit&wind_speed_unit=mph&precipitation_unit=inch&forecast_days=14&timezone=auto - AVAILABLE
National Risk Index supplemental baseline
FEMA · retrieved 2026-08-26T19:48:49.303Z
County-level March 2023 relative risk. Displayed as context; not substituted for the requested rolling 10-year component.
https://services.arcgis.com/HdtZMT2FmI4wPzTM/ArcGIS/rest/services/FEMA_National_Risk_Index/FeatureServer/0/query?geometry=-97.291224%2C32.772119&geometryType=esriGeometryPoint&inSR=4326&spatialRel=esriSpatialRelIntersects&outFields=STATE%2CCOUNTY%2CSTCOFIPS%2CNRI_VER%2CRISK_SCORE%2CRISK_RATNG%2CHWAV_RISKS%2CCWAV_RISKS%2CDRGT_RISKS%2CWFIR_RISKS%2CHRCN_RISKS%2CTRND_RISKS%2CHAIL_RISKS%2CLTNG_RISKS%2CRFLD_RISKS%2CWNTW_RISKS%2CISTM_RISKS&returnGeometry=false&f=json - AVAILABLE
2016–2025 county event history
NOAA / NCEI Storm Events · retrieved 2026-08-26T12:38:24Z
One NOAA Storm Events detail record; counts are reports, not unique storms. Seven hazards have complete county-coded coverage; unsupported hazard/geography combinations remain null.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/ - AVAILABLE
County temperature normal and series
NOAA / NCEI Climate at a Glance · retrieved 2026-08-26T19:48:49.303Z
1991–2020 normal compared with the latest complete rolling 10-year county series.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/county/time-series/TX-439/tavg/12/12/1991-2025.json?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1991&endbaseyear=2020 - AVAILABLE
County precipitation normal and series
NOAA / NCEI Climate at a Glance · retrieved 2026-08-26T19:48:49.303Z
1991–2020 normal compared with the latest complete rolling 10-year county series.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/county/time-series/TX-439/pcp/12/12/1991-2025.json?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1991&endbaseyear=2020
- The primary score is a confirmed 0–100 decision index, not an event probability. A technical worst-case bound remains available in component evidence when required data is missing, but it is not an expected range or forecast.
- Source outages and unsupported hazard layers are shown as unavailable or not scored. Missing evidence is never treated as zero.
- Days 8–14 use freely available model guidance. NOAA CPC outlooks do not provide deterministic location-level forecasts for every hazard.
- FEMA National Risk Index values use hazard-specific source windows and are supplemental. They are never labeled as the requested rolling 10-year history.
- Climate trend scores are county-level derived comparisons, not event forecasts. Tornado, hail, hurricane, surge, smoke, lightning-strike, blizzard, and ice-event projections remain unscored where no defensible source exists.
- Low or unscored risk does not mean safe. Follow current instructions from the issuing authority.