Bucks County, Pennsylvania
Active alerts and forecasts are evaluated at the representative point shown below. Historical and climate evidence uses county-level data where available.
Representative point: Bucks County Census representative point, Pennsylvania
- LAT
- 40.33689
- LON
- -75.10706
- ZONE
- America/New_York
- COUNTY_FIPS
- 42017
0–100 DECISION INDEX, NOT EVENT PROBABILITY
EVIDENCE QUALITY 67.5/100
No audience or operational context supplied.
What this assessment says.
Elevated available evidence for extreme heat and heat index, flash flooding, urban flooding.
1 intersecting official alert. Forecast guidance available for supported hazards.High historical or climate indices for extreme heat and heat index, tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, lightning.
Historical and climate indices describe planning exposure, not current conditions.Evidence layers are available across the 19 monitored hazards.
All registered sources responded. Not scored is different from zero.Active directives
Flood Watch issued August 26 at 2:31PM EDT until August 28 at 4:00AM EDT by NWS Mount Holly NJ
New Castle; Sussex; Morris; Hunterdon; Somerset; Middlesex; Western Monmouth; Mercer; Gloucester; Camden; Northwestern Burlington; Delaware; Philadelphia; Western Chester; Eastern Chester; Western Montgomery; Eastern Montgomery; Upper Bucks; Lower Bucks
OFFICIAL INSTRUCTION, VERBATIMYou should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.SOURCE: NWS Mount Holly NJ
Risk by hazard
Weights: active 40% · forecast 30% · history 20% · climate 10%
| Hazard | Assessment | Current and 14-day | Long-term evidence | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme heat and heat indexCURRENT / NEAR-TERM | 40/100Moderate | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY50/100 | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATE86.2/100 | 3 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 67.5/100 |
| Flash floodingCURRENT / NEAR-TERM | 40/100Moderate | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY45/100 | HISTORY96.9/100CLIMATE44.8/100 | 4 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 84.5/100 |
| Urban floodingCURRENT / NEAR-TERM | 40/100Moderate | ACTIVE17.5/10014-DAY45/100 | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATE44.8/100 | 3 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 67.5/100 |
| Heavy rain and atmospheric riversCURRENT / NEAR-TERM | 40/100Moderate | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY42/100 | HISTORY87.3/100CLIMATE44.8/100 | 4 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 84.5/100 |
| River floodingHIGH LONG-TERM | 27.6/100Low | ACTIVE17.5/10014-DAYNot scored | HISTORY80.8/100CLIMATE44.8/100 | 3 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 62.0/100 |
| Severe thunderstormsHIGH LONG-TERM | 21.1/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100 | HISTORY98.1/100CLIMATENot scored | 3 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 77.5/100 |
| LightningHIGH LONG-TERM | 21.1/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100 | HISTORY97.8/100CLIMATENot scored | 3 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 77.5/100 |
| TornadoesHIGH LONG-TERM | 18.1/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORY90.4/100CLIMATENot scored | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 55.0/100 |
| Extreme cold and wind chill | 2.9/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100 | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATE13.8/100 | 3 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 67.5/100 |
| Blizzards | 1.5/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100 | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 60.5/100 |
| Ice storms and freezing rain | 1.5/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100 | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 60.5/100 |
| Winter storms and heavy snow | 1.5/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAY5/100 | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 60.5/100 |
| Hail | 15.1/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORY75.3/100CLIMATENot scored | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 55.0/100 |
| Wildfires | 7.1/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATE70.7/100 | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 45.0/100 |
| Drought | 5.5/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATE55.2/100 | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 45.0/100 |
| Coastal flooding | 4.5/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATE44.8/100 | 2 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 45.0/100 |
| Hurricanes and tropical storms | 0/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100 |
| Storm surge | 0/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100 |
| Wildfire smoke and degraded air quality | 0/100Low | ACTIVENo matching alert14-DAYNot scored | HISTORYNot scoredCLIMATENot scored | 1 OF 4LAYERS AVAILABLEQUALITY 38.0/100 |
Component evidence
Extreme heat and heat index
40/100 · Moderate3 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 67.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 50/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- 86.2/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Technical missing-data bound
43.6/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Flash flooding
40/100 · Moderate4 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 84.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 45/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- 96.9/10061 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 96.88. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- 44.8/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Urban flooding
40/100 · Moderate3 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 67.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 17.5/1001 intersecting official alert.
- FORECAST
- 45/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- 44.8/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Technical missing-data bound
45/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Heavy rain and atmospheric rivers
40/100 · Moderate4 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 84.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 42/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- 87.3/1008 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 87.3. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- 44.8/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
River flooding
27.6/100 · Low3 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 62.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 17.5/1001 intersecting official alert.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- 80.8/10011 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 80.76. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- 44.8/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Severe thunderstorms
21.1/100 · Low3 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 77.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 5/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- 98.1/100237 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 98.06. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
31.1/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Lightning
21.1/100 · Low3 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 77.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 5/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- 97.8/1008 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 97.8. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
31.1/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Tornadoes
18.1/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 55.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- 90.4/10012 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 90.44. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Extreme cold and wind chill
2.9/100 · Low3 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 67.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 5/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- 13.8/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Technical missing-data bound
22.9/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Blizzards
1.5/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 60.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 5/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
31.5/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Ice storms and freezing rain
1.5/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 60.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 5/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
31.5/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Winter storms and heavy snow
1.5/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 60.5/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- 5/100Derived from the 14-day daily model series using published INSIT3 thresholds.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
31.5/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Hail
15.1/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 55.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- 75.3/10035 NOAA county reports in 2016–2025; national midrank percentile 75.25. Reports are not unique storms.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Wildfires
7.1/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 45.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- 70.7/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Drought
5.5/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 45.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- 55.2/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Coastal flooding
4.5/100 · Low2 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 45.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- 44.8/100Recent 10-year county mean ranked against the NOAA 1991–2020 baseline series.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Hurricanes and tropical storms
0/100 · Low1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Storm surge
0/100 · Low1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Wildfire smoke and degraded air quality
0/100 · Low1 of 4 layers available · evidence quality 38.0/100
- ACTIVE
- 0/100No matching active NWS alert at retrieval time.
- FORECAST
- Not scoredNo uniform location-level forecast product is available for this hazard.
- HISTORY
- Not scoredThis hazard is not uniformly county-coded in NOAA Storm Events; it remains unsupported rather than being forced into a county score.
- CLIMATE
- Not scoredNo defensible county climate proxy is available for this event hazard.
Technical missing-data bound
80/100 is the mathematical worst case if missing layers were maximally adverse. It is not an expected range, probability, or forecast.
Recommendations.
- 01Monitor linked issuing agencies and compare source issue, validity, and expiration times before acting.
- 02Use the highest active or forecast hazard as the planning driver; do not average away a severe local threat.
- 03Prioritize preparedness for extreme heat and heat index, flash flooding, urban flooding based on the currently confirmed score floor.
These recommendations never create, paraphrase, or override evacuation or shelter orders.
Sources
- AVAILABLE
Active alerts
NOAA / National Weather Service · retrieved 2026-08-26T19:48:45.560Z
CAP-compatible active alerts intersecting the evaluated point.
https://api.weather.gov/alerts/active?point=40.336887,-75.10706 - AVAILABLE
14-day forecast
Open-Meteo using NOAA and other national weather models · retrieved 2026-08-26T15:17:50.988Z
Daily cached model forecast retrieved 2026-08-26T15:17:50.988Z. Days 8–14 are model guidance, not deterministic NWS hazard forecasts.
https://api.open-meteo.com/v1/forecast?latitude=40.336887&longitude=-75.10706&daily=temperature_2m_max,temperature_2m_min,apparent_temperature_max,apparent_temperature_min,precipitation_sum,precipitation_probability_max,snowfall_sum,wind_gusts_10m_max,weather_code&temperature_unit=fahrenheit&wind_speed_unit=mph&precipitation_unit=inch&forecast_days=14&timezone=auto - AVAILABLE
National Risk Index supplemental baseline
FEMA · retrieved 2026-08-26T19:48:45.560Z
County-level March 2023 relative risk. Displayed as context; not substituted for the requested rolling 10-year component.
https://services.arcgis.com/HdtZMT2FmI4wPzTM/ArcGIS/rest/services/FEMA_National_Risk_Index/FeatureServer/0/query?geometry=-75.10706%2C40.336887&geometryType=esriGeometryPoint&inSR=4326&spatialRel=esriSpatialRelIntersects&outFields=STATE%2CCOUNTY%2CSTCOFIPS%2CNRI_VER%2CRISK_SCORE%2CRISK_RATNG%2CHWAV_RISKS%2CCWAV_RISKS%2CDRGT_RISKS%2CWFIR_RISKS%2CHRCN_RISKS%2CTRND_RISKS%2CHAIL_RISKS%2CLTNG_RISKS%2CRFLD_RISKS%2CWNTW_RISKS%2CISTM_RISKS&returnGeometry=false&f=json - AVAILABLE
2016–2025 county event history
NOAA / NCEI Storm Events · retrieved 2026-08-26T12:38:24Z
One NOAA Storm Events detail record; counts are reports, not unique storms. Seven hazards have complete county-coded coverage; unsupported hazard/geography combinations remain null.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/swdi/stormevents/csvfiles/ - AVAILABLE
County temperature normal and series
NOAA / NCEI Climate at a Glance · retrieved 2026-08-26T19:48:45.560Z
1991–2020 normal compared with the latest complete rolling 10-year county series.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/county/time-series/PA-017/tavg/12/12/1991-2025.json?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1991&endbaseyear=2020 - AVAILABLE
County precipitation normal and series
NOAA / NCEI Climate at a Glance · retrieved 2026-08-26T19:48:45.560Z
1991–2020 normal compared with the latest complete rolling 10-year county series.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/county/time-series/PA-017/pcp/12/12/1991-2025.json?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1991&endbaseyear=2020
- The primary score is a confirmed 0–100 decision index, not an event probability. A technical worst-case bound remains available in component evidence when required data is missing, but it is not an expected range or forecast.
- Source outages and unsupported hazard layers are shown as unavailable or not scored. Missing evidence is never treated as zero.
- Days 8–14 use freely available model guidance. NOAA CPC outlooks do not provide deterministic location-level forecasts for every hazard.
- FEMA National Risk Index values use hazard-specific source windows and are supplemental. They are never labeled as the requested rolling 10-year history.
- Climate trend scores are county-level derived comparisons, not event forecasts. Tornado, hail, hurricane, surge, smoke, lightning-strike, blizzard, and ice-event projections remain unscored where no defensible source exists.
- Low or unscored risk does not mean safe. Follow current instructions from the issuing authority.